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Energy Markets: UK Cap, Iran Sanctions, Jet Fuel

Wall Street Journal Markets •
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The latest Market Talks covering Energy and Utilities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.0958 ET – Another rise in the U.K. energy price cap would more than offset Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s move to cut tax on electricity bills, Thomas Pugh at RSM UK says in a note. Ofgem, the country’s energy regulator, is expected to increase the price cap in October.

This is likely to have a limited impact on headline inflation. “Ofgem’s price cap is based on typical use for dual-fuel households, but some households will only use electricity, where prices will probably fall,” Pugh says. But risks of higher energy inflation remain going into 2027. European gas storage is at a 10-year low, which could lift wholesale prices, Pugh says. “That would push household bills much higher in January, keeping inflation sticky in 2027.” ([email protected])0902 ET – Crude futures are lower following six straight session of gains with the market looking to Scott Bessent’s afternoon press conference where the Treasury Secretary plans to give details of increased U.S. economic sanctions against Iran.

The measures “could inflict significant economic pain on Iran, potentially moving the needle toward renewed and more serious talks with the U.S.,” Peter Cardillo of Spartan Capital says in a note. WTI is down 1.7% at $85.58 a barrel and Brent is 1.3% lower at $93.14 a barrel. ([email protected])0424 ET – Gulf markets face pressure this week from potential tightening sanctions on Iran and elevated U.S. Treasury yields, Iridium Advisors says. The consultancy says details of what U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has called the “toughest sanctions in history” could push negotiations with Iran further out of reach, while the U.A.E.’s halt to trade and financial transactions with Tehran may raise questions over corporate exposure to Iranian customers, suppliers and payments.

Higher Treasury yields could also lift regional discount rates and borrowing costs, weighing particularly on real estate, utilities, infrastructure and telecom stocks. ([email protected])0045 ET – China Aviation Oil (Singapore) Corp. is likely to benefit from jet-fuel demand, UOB Kay Hian analysts say in a research report. The International Air Transport Association has projected Asia-Pacific region’s air passenger volume will rise 5.1% in 2026, the analysts note. The increase in passenger traffic will probably support higher jet-fuel demand at major airports.

The brokerage expects the jet-fuel supplier’s 2H earnings recovery to be aided by drivers including normalization of jet fuel volumes and higher contributions from associates. It maintains the stock’s buy rating but lowers the target price to 1.88 Singapore dollars from S$2.63 to reflect a valuation rollover. Shares are 1.4% lower at S$1.43. ([email protected])2136 ET – Dialog Group’s FY 2027 growth should be supported by the 150,000 cubic meter storage terminal Dialog Terminal Langsat 3 expansion, targeted for completion in September, Affin Hwang IB analyst Tze Hern Ong says in a note.

Growth should also benefit from a 27.8%-owned LNG-linked air separation unit, expected to be completed by late 2026. However, 1Q FY 2027 earnings could moderate sequentially as the 35 million ringgit JV dividend income in previous quarter is unlikely to recur, he adds. Ong raises Dialog’s FY 2027-2028 EPS forecasts by 6%-9%.

Affin Hwang raises Dialog’s target price to 2.65 ringgit from 2.60 ringgit, while maintaining a buy rating on the stock. Shares are 1.0% lower at 1.97 ringgit. ([email protected])1952 ET – Shares of fuel refiner and marketer Ampol should trade well today, says Jefferies. That’s because Ampol’s 1H result was even better than its initial announcement at end-July.

Ampol reported Ebit of A$1.39 billion, above the A$1.35 billion signaled weeks earlier. Analyst Michael Simotas says an interim dividend of A$1.85/share is better than expected. He also likes double-digit Convenie...