JPMorgan Chase chief executive Jamie Dimon used his annual shareholder letter to flag a cascade of risks that could shape global markets this year. He warned that the ongoing war in Iran may trigger commodity shocks and force higher interest rates, while lingering geopolitical tension could redraw global trade alliances. Dimon’s tone was sober, despite his overall still optimism about the U.S. economy.

The CEO singled out private credit funds, now a $1.8 trillion slice of capital, as vulnerable to a “cockroach” effect after recent redemptions. Though he dismissed systemic danger, Dimon cautioned that credit standards are easing and retail investors could seek court remedies if defaults rise. A modest inflation uptick, he said, could push rates up and dent asset prices.

Beyond credit, Dimon noted that trade tariffs have barely dented inflation and that the administration’s handling of China will shape future supply chains. He also pointed to AI spending by Big Tech and potential tax reforms as bright spots, yet warned that any escalation in the Middle East could quickly erode those gains. Investors should weigh these mixed signals now.