The CFTC unveiled a draft rule set aimed at tightening oversight of the fast‑growing prediction‑market sector. While most sports‑related contracts remain permissible, the agency seeks authority to block wagers it deems contrary to the public interest or vulnerable to manipulation, such as bets that could be swayed by a single participant and protect market integrity for all participants.

The proposal would likely curb niche bets on player injuries and first‑pitch scenarios, the latter spotlighted after an MLB all‑star faced scrutiny. Contracts tied to war, terrorism or assassinations are expected to be barred outright, and limit potential abuse in volatile arenas. Regulators will apply a case‑by‑case test rather than a blanket ban, giving platforms some flexibility while tightening risk controls.

Kalshi, one of the first regulated venues, responded by saying it will require certain users to disclose their employer identities, a step aimed at satisfying the new vetting criteria. The rulebook signals that investors and traders must anticipate tighter compliance costs, but it also preserves the bulk of the market that fuels betting on elections, earnings releases and the Super Bowl halftime show, as regulators.