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ASML's AI-Driven Semiconductor Surge Defies Geopolitical Headwinds

Wall Street Journal Markets •
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ASML's first-quarter performance reveals resilient demand for AI semiconductors, with analysts noting that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and U.S. export restrictions to China have not dampened growth. The Dutch chip equipment maker reported 1.4% higher shares at 1302.20 euros, citing clients accelerating capacity expansions for 2026. RSM UK’s James Bull emphasized that AI and advanced semiconductor demand remains positive, outpacing supply constraints.

South Korean telecom KT faces headwinds, with analysts predicting a 29% year-over-year profit drop in Q1 due to data breach remediation costs. Nomura’s Angela Hong and Won Kang attribute weak first-half earnings to customer retention programs and potential lingering expenses through 2026. However, they project gradual recovery in the second half, factoring in possible provision write-backs and real estate gains. KT’s target price rose 11% to 62,000 won despite a neutral rating.

ASML’s Q2 sales guidance of 8.4-9 billion euros fell short of market expectations (8.94 billion), with gross margins projected at 51%-52%—below the anticipated 52.3%. Citi analysts highlighted the 8.7 billion euro midpoint as a key pressure point, signaling cautious optimism amid slowing order momentum. The firm’s resilience ties to sustained AI infrastructure investments, even as geopolitical risks persist.

The semiconductor sector’s divergence is stark: ASML thrives on AI-driven demand, while KT grapples with operational fallout. This underscores how technological shifts—particularly generative AI’s infrastructure needs—are reshaping market dynamics, with chip equipment suppliers and telecom giants experiencing divergent trajectories.