Aluminum prices haven't matched other commodity gains since the Middle East conflict began, but industry experts warn the rally is far from done. Strait of Hormuz closure has depleted smelters' stockpiles, leaving them vulnerable to supply disruptions. This squeeze affects everything from Ford F-150 trucks to soda cans.

Smelters now truck in raw materials to keep operations running, but analysts say this can't match the volume of alumina and other products that typically arrive via waterways. "I'm sure most of these stockpiles will now be dry," said Charvi Trivedi, analyst at Wood Mackenzie.

The actual supply shortage will kick in next month or two, making it critical for aluminum prices. Before the conflict, roughly 1 in every 10 metric tons of the world's aluminum came from the region, much sold to U.S., Europe and Japan. Manufacturers face tough decisions.