The Republican Party’s hopes of saving its majorities in Congress increasingly appear to depend on a few possible outcomes: G. O. P. advantages in money and on the map pay off, the polls are wrong, or a major news development suddenly brightens the party’s prospects.
In the meantime, Republicans in competitive races are doing whatever they can to try to loosen their ties to President Trump’s agenda, which is dragging their party down with just over three weeks to go before the midterm elections. There have been new ads stating opposition to Trump’s tariffs from candidates who supported them, calls to end the war in Iran from candidates who backed it and efforts to look bipartisan from candidates who pledged to be Trump’s top allies. The debates last week made clear that Republicans are on the back foot.
Questions about high prices, tariffs and the war dominated the sessions in battleground states. While G. O.
P. advertising often aims to link Democrats to their party’s left-wing figures and stoke disputes about transgender athletes, cost-of-living issues are paramount to voters this year. Trump’s rhetoric is not helping his party. Even as his own approval ratings have plummeted, he urges voters to pretend that he is on the ballot.
He touts data centers that are even less popular than he is. And he has shown no inclination to back off from his positions on the war in Iran or tariffs. But then there is the money.
Thanks to Trump’s super PACs and well-heeled political allies, Republicans still hold a commanding financial advantage. The billionaire Elon Musk has directed more than $276 million to Republicans since the start of July. Republicans hope that will help them pull through on a House map they sought to redraw in their favor and Senate map that features plenty of races in red states.
But the time to change minds and move votes is shrinking by the day. The Battle for the Senate Republicans have all but conceded the race in North Carolina to Democrat Roy Cooper, a popular former governor. In Georgia, Senator Jon Ossoff has a commanding lead over Representative Mike Collins.
And now Democrats are on offense in deep-red Kansas, with Senate Majority PAC, the party’s main super PAC, beginning $5 million worth of ads in the state. According to polls, Democratic candidates are leading or running neck-and-neck in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas — all places Trump won three times by substantial margins. He and Vice President JD Vance have aimed to energize the base with appearances in those states, but the polls suggest the Democrats are holding their own.
In the eyes of Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, the minority leader, Democrats even have a chance to take back the majority partly because of his recruiting efforts. In an interview Friday, he claimed credit for getting Cooper, former Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio and former Representative Mary Peltola of Alaska into their races and helping Josh Turek win his primary in Iowa. “I couldn’t accept the map as is because the map as is consigns us to a minority, all things being equal, just because of the way the states are structured,” Schumer said. “So we had to expand the map. I didn’t accept the original map.
I worked to build a better one.” Still, some Democrats worry about Senate races that ought to be easier for them. Contests remain tight in Maine, Michigan and New Hampshire. The Race for the House Things do not look promising for House Republican hopes of retaining their majority.
The Cook Political Report on Friday shifted 18 districts toward Democrats. Two Iowa seats, held by Representatives Zach Nunn and Mariannette Miller-Meeks, are now considered “lean Democratic.” That is in addition to Republicans already punting on the Omaha-based district held by the retiring Representative Don Bacon of Nebraska. Representative Tom Emmer of Minnesota, the House majority whip, said the issue is that Republican voters may be too “satisfied” with Trump to vote in November. “The midterms, you typic...
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