Virginia voters will decide on April 21 whether to redraw the state's congressional map, a move that could eliminate all but one Republican-leaning district. Early voting has been underway since March 6, with 460,000 ballots already cast - slightly higher than at this point in the 2025 governor's race.

This referendum represents the latest battleground in the national fight over redistricting ahead of the midterms. The proposed map would dramatically reshape Virginia's political landscape, potentially giving Democrats a significant advantage in congressional representation. Unlike many states, Virginia doesn't require voters to register by party, making partisan analysis more challenging.

Data from L2 shows early voters have similar partisan patterns to the 2025 governor's race, where Democrat Abigail Spanberger won by more than 15 percentage points. However, experts caution that early voting patterns don't predict final outcomes, as Election Day voters typically lean more conservative. The referendum's outcome could have major implications for Virginia's political balance and national redistricting battles.