President Trump's Iran policy amounts to a high-stakes poker game where he may be holding a weak hand. Trump has blockaded Iran to prevent oil exports, hoping to force negotiations. But some experts believe Iran has sufficient reserves to hold out for months while the Strait of Hormuz remains vulnerable to disruption.

The real issue is Trump's misunderstanding of asymmetric warfare. Iran used $35,000 drones to strike AWS data centers in the UAE, causing tens of millions in damage while disrupting banking across the Persian Gulf. Small powers can now leverage cheap technology to inflict disproportionate harm - Israel was forced to use $4 million Patriot missiles to intercept Hamas rockets made from piping.

The emerging threat extends beyond traditional warfare. Anthropic's Mythos and OpenAI's GPT-5.4-Cyber can autonomously execute sophisticated cyberattacks, potentially giving even small actors unprecedented disruptive capabilities. Unauthorized users have already accessed these powerful AI tools, signaling a new era of vulnerability.

The democratization of advanced AI presents a fundamental shift in global power dynamics. Small groups can now access tools capable of causing massive disruption, fundamentally altering the traditional balance between state and non-state actors.