Right-wing intellectual Christopher Caldwell argues in a recent Spectator essay that the Trump administration's military action against Iran marks the end of Trumpism as a coherent political project. Caldwell, a contributing editor at Claremont Review of Books, contends that the war represents a fundamental betrayal of the populist movement's anti-interventionist principles. His analysis suggests the conflict has shattered the coalition that brought Trump to power.

Caldwell defines Trumpism as more than just MAGA loyalty to Donald Trump himself. He describes it as a governing agenda focused on addressing economic inequality, limiting government overreach, challenging affirmative action policies, and resisting what he calls the 'deep state.' The movement promised democratic restoration by reducing elite institutional power and returning government to serve the voters' will. Caldwell argues these core principles are now irreconcilable with military intervention in the Middle East.

The debate over Trumpism's fate reveals deeper questions about American populism. While polls show Trump's base largely supports his Iran policy, Caldwell notes that MAGA's support has plateaued around 36 percent. He suggests the movement's broader appeal depended on Trump maintaining his anti-war stance. Without that constraint, Caldwell believes Trumpism loses its distinctive character and becomes just another form of establishment politics.