Nobel economist Richard Thaler told Times Opinion columnist David Leonhardt that the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nomination is a high‑stakes hiring problem. He likened candidate selection to testing job performance, noting that unstructured interviews yield little predictive value. Thaler warned the party risks repeating the costly mis‑fires seen in sports and past elections.

He argued Democrats will lose if they pick the candidate they like most rather than the one with the highest electability. Historical blunders—Barry Goldwater in 1964 and George McGovern in 1972—showed ideological extremes alienate swing voters. Thaler suggested three reforms: lengthen the pre‑primary timeline, redesign the primary calendar, and tighten televised debate criteria.

Thaler urged the Democratic National Committee to use the 2026 midterms as a testing ground, rewarding hopefuls who campaign for House, Senate and state races with debate slots. He also criticized Iowa and New Hampshire’s outsized role, calling it status‑quo bias, and noted the DNC moved South Carolina ahead of New Hampshire in 2024 to begin correcting the imbalance.

Implementing these changes could sharpen the party’s focus on swing districts, improve candidate vetting, and raise the odds of defeating a third Trump‑era president in the 2028 election.