The Supreme Court agreed last month to decide whether the Trump administration can revoke Temporary Protected Status for hundreds of thousands of Haitian and Syrian immigrants, but justices declined the administration's request for an immediate pause of lower court rulings protecting these migrants. This means roughly 350,000 Haitians and over 6,000 Syrians remain safe from deportation while the case proceeds to argument on April 29.

Veteran Supreme Court observer Linda Greenhouse predicts the administration will lose. The reason, she argues, lies in a brazen procedural violation by Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem. The 1990 TPS law requires consultation with appropriate agencies before terminating protected status. Yet Noem's "consultation" consisted of a single Friday afternoon email exchange with the State Department, which responded 53 minutes later that there would be "no foreign policy concerns."

Two federal district judges already found the terminations "arbitrary and capricious" under the Administrative Procedure Act. Greenhouse notes the justices know this themselves — the same procedural reasoning led the Court to block the first Trump administration's citizenship question on the 2020 Census and its attempt to cancel DACA. The APA turns 80 this year, and the justices have consistently demanded "reasoned decision-making" from federal agencies.

These cases represent the first Trump-era administrative challenges to reach the Supreme Court on the merits, meaning the justices' response will establish precedent for dozens of similar disputes pending in lower courts.