Former White House chief economist Jason Furman warned that the Social Security trustees now project the retirement‑benefits trust fund will be depleted in six years, far sooner than the three‑decade horizon cited in the 1990s. The shortfall would force a 22 percent cut to benefits for tens of millions of retirees and survivors, a scenario politicians have long avoided.

Congress has already deepened the gap. A 2024 bipartisan bill expanded benefits for state employees without new funding, while the Trump‑era One Big Beautiful Bill redirected revenue earmarked for the program, adding roughly a quarter of the recent solvency decline. Senators Cassidy and Kaine now propose borrowing and investing the shortfall in the stock market, a risky shortcut that sidesteps structural reform.

With annual outlays near $1.5 trillion, any fix must balance benefit cuts against new revenue. Cutting benefits across the board would require roughly 20 percent reductions, while expanding the payroll tax base above the $184,500 ceiling would push top rates past 50 percent. Furman argues that targeting the program’s poorest seniors could lift them out of poverty for just 3 percent of the budget, a trade‑off lawmakers must confront.