Trump’s replacement of a military war with a heightened economic one is not expected to alter Iran’s strategy, while further impoverishing its people. Six months into the policy shift, Iran appears stronger despite intensified sanctions, with its regional influence and nuclear program advancing. U.S. objectives remain ambiguous, as the administration struggles to define what success looks like beyond pressure. Analysts note that economic hardship has not translated into political concessions from Tehran, and instead has entrenched hardline factions.

The approach risks deepening humanitarian suffering without achieving strategic clarity or leverage.