Ten years after Mohammed bin Salman launched Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia is pivoting from grand ambitions to fiscal pragmatism. The kingdom's roughly $1 trillion sovereign wealth fund announced a new strategy emphasizing "efficiency," with officials asking executives to identify "what's must-have" versus "what's good to have." The shift comes as the prince's plans have outpaced the state's financial capacity.

Oil prices surged in 2021-2022, triggering a wave of splashy projects including a mountain skiing town, a cube-shaped skyscraper, and a breakaway golf league. When prices subsequently fell, the government began canceling and delaying plans. The 2029 Asian Winter Games at Trojena has been indefinitely delayed, construction on the Mukaab has been suspended, and the fund may withdraw support from LIV Golf. The Finance Ministry has recorded a budget deficit in nine of the past ten years.

The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has increased pressure on Saudi Arabia to reassess spending, though the conflict has bumped up oil prices. Critics question the lack of transparency around why unrealistic plans were announced and how much public money has been wasted on projects that may now be scrapped.