Nicole Grajewski, an assistant professor at Sciences Po, argues that the United States’ preoccupation with its own war in Iran has inadvertently eased pressure on Russia. Oil prices have risen, temporary waivers on sanctions let Moscow refill its coffers, and peace talks over Ukraine have stalled, giving President Vladimir Putin breathing room to rely on an embattled Iran as markets gauge oil volatility.

Since 2022, Shahed drones from Tehran have peppered Ukrainian skies, marking a shift from a wary Moscow to a pragmatic ally. The two regimes, bound by a shared grievance against the U.S.-led order, signed now a partnership agreement in January 2025, cementing cooperation in intelligence, finance and sanctions evasion, though no mutual‑defence clause exists.

For Putin, losing Iran would erase a rare source of strategic leverage that can pressure the United States beyond the stalled Ukraine front. With Russia unable to mount a conventional intervention, Moscow leans on private contractors, limited electronic‑war support and clandestine arms flows to keep Tehran afloat. The Kremlin’s next move will hinge on keeping Iran viable without provoking additional Western sanctions.