Bad polls and misleading betting odds have created serious confusion about candidate strength and voter sentiment ahead of the midterms and 2028. Politicians have long relied on surveys to guide decisions, but this year unreliable polls are shaping narratives, donor behavior, and news coverage like never before.

Several Democratic campaigns are seizing on shaky polls to create perceptions of momentum, attract donors, and intimidate rivals. The rise of prediction markets has incentivized untrustworthy political polls. While Republicans have long pointed to dubious polling, this phenomenon has become acute in Democratic primaries this year.

Questionable surveys created false narratives in key contests. In one Senate primary, polls suggested a major underdog would lose by just a percentage point. In a governor’s race, consistent double-digit leads created an illusion of inevitability, making an actual loss seem like an upset. “After seeing the polls, I think everybody would have called me the underdog,” one candidate said.

The polling world faces recent scandals involving fake surveys and manipulative practices. Three purported polls turned out to be entirely fabricated as a social experiment. Another pollster admitted shifting respondents’ support when results didn’t align with their expectations. These issues emerge as the 2028 presidential primary season begins, when dozens of candidates will likely be defined by polls cementing impressions and setting narratives not tied to political reality.