To Israelis, the two leading contenders after the election, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Gadi Eisenkot, offer sharply different personalities and styles. But to the rest of the world, they do not seem substantially different in their approach to Israel's security or opposition to a Palestinian state. If neither can form a government, Mr. Netanyahu could remain as caretaker prime minister for weeks or months.
In this period of instability, analysts say settler violence in the Israeli-occupied West Bank will likely increase and Mr. Netanyahu will push President Trump to start bombing Iran again. If Mr. Eisenkot emerges as prime minister, Israel's overall foreign policy is not expected to shift much. The tone may be more accommodating on the margins, but few expect Israel to embrace a two-state solution or abandon its active conflicts with Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran.
All that means Israel will still find itself increasingly isolated internationally. The vote sends a message that the current government's approach, which has prompted an international backlash, "is not just a Bibi problem," said Gina Abercrombie-Winstanley of the Atlantic Council. "It represents today's Israel writ large." Israel's reputation has suffered over the past few years. Sympathy after the Hamas-led attack on Oct. 7, 2023, has been undermined by the extensive Israeli bombing campaign in southern Lebanon and Gaza, as well as rising settler violence in the West Bank.
The war against Iran, encouraged by Israel to join President Trump, has been deeply unpopular, driving up energy prices and inflation. Natan Sachs of the Middle East Institute said Israel has "now entered a very dangerous phase in its official relations with other countries." He cited a general increase in anti-Israel, anti-Zionist and antisemitic sentiment in the West and recent European moves to impose sanctions on Israeli products and businesses in the West Bank, which could damage the economy. In the United States, Israel faces an erosion of trust.
Support has been waning among Democrats, who appear poised to take the House of Representatives. Changing that relationship "will be even more difficult if Bibi Netanyahu is still in charge of Israel and there is absolutely no hope of Israeli politics or policies changing," said Rachel Brandenburg of the Israel Policy Forum. Several European nations, including Britain and France, have been in watch-and-see mode, holding off implementing sanctions announced last month.
Their hope, if limited, was that an Eisenkot government would crack down on settler violence, stop claiming more territory in the West Bank and cooperate with governments trying to promote a peaceful settlement with Palestinians. "There is a deep animus between most European leaders and Netanyahu that has built up for at least a decade," said Robin Niblett, former director of Chatham House and now warden of New College, Oxford. "That makes Europe's ability to contribute to peace in the region that much more risky even to attempt politically." Mr. Eisenkot is also tough on security issues, but would "try to find a way to cooperate for stability and peace instead of making the Europeans the enemy." Even that effort, Mr. Niblett said, "would give more space for Europe to support Israel.".
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