Nobody wants to jinx it. The election is still days away. But Republicans are pulling money out of North Carolina, assuming they will lose there, and spending in Mississippi, where they hope to save a Senate seat. A Democrat could win the governorship of Texas. Polling suggests the biggest margin of victory in any congressional election in nearly two decades, and Republicans desperate to save their seats are repudiating each major item on President Trump's second-term agenda: tariffs, war, and ICE. All the signs we have suggest that, historic or not, these midterms are likely to mark the end of a political era.
MAGA defined the epoch, but the movement and its leader were always weak. Over three presidential campaigns, Trump won eight million fewer votes than his Democratic opponents. Add up the days when more Americans approved of him than disapproved of him since he descended the golden escalator, and you get about two weeks. During the 2016 primaries, Trump's rise looked like a sign of Republican Party weakness. A haphazard demagogue who never managed to achieve a majority mandate nevertheless commanding power and attention for so long and to such consequential ends.
MAGA doesn't mean what it used to. In 2016, Trump was carried to victory by a resentful anti-elite coalition. Out of power during the Biden years, MAGA nursed professional-class grievances. Once it returned to power in 2025, the movement looked reshaped in Elon Musk's image. Ten years ago, Trump could somewhat plausibly claim to be giving voice to the American voiceless. Now he is speaking largely for a different constituency.
The influence of Christian nationalism endured even grew. The strongest part of the Trump coalition has always been its committed white evangelical base. Religiosity was the single best predictor of voter preference. It's notable that Mike Johnson, an evangelical and social conservative, is the speaker of the House.
Source: New York Times Top Stories · Summarized by HeadlinesBriefing