Lebanon's government has long sought to disarm Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militia that has functioned as a state within a state. Efforts gained momentum in 2025 after new leadership prioritized the goal, with the military drafting plans to dismantle Hezbollah's arsenal by year-end. By January, the army reported clearing 10,000 rockets and 400 missiles from southern Lebanon. However, progress stalled in February when Israel and the U.S. launched strikes against Iran, prompting Hezbollah to retaliate with cross-border attacks using advanced drones. The group's ability to launch surprise strikes exposed gaps in Lebanon's military capabilities, complicating disarmament efforts.

The stalled process reflects deeper political and regional challenges. Lebanon's government fears alienating Shiite voters, Hezbollah's core constituency, while Western allies push for stronger enforcement. Iran's continued support for Hezbollah ensures the militia retains leverage. Analysts note that disarmament requires reducing Iran's regional influence, a prospect unlikely without sustained pressure on Tehran. The Litani River demarcation line, central to cease-fire agreements, remains a flashpoint, with Israel controlling parts of southern Lebanon.

Historical parallels loom large. Memories of Lebanon's 15-year civil war make the government hesitant to replicate past confrontations, such as raids on suspected Hezbollah weapons caches. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam invoked the 1989 Taif Accords, which mandated militia disarmament, calling the current delay "over 30 years late." Meanwhile, Hezbollah frames its arsenal as essential for defending Shiite interests, embedding itself further into Lebanese politics. The group's persistent defiance underscores the fragility of Lebanon's fragile statehood.

The conflict has left hundreds of thousands displaced, deepening economic and humanitarian crises. With no clear path to disarmament, Lebanon risks further fragmentation. Israel's military campaign, while devastating southern Lebanon, has failed to deter Hezbollah, which vows to maintain its weapons. As U.N.-facilitated talks at the border remain inconclusive, the country teeters on the edge of renewed sectarian violence.