In the 1990s, politicians fought for the support of soccer moms. In the 2010s, they competed for votes from white working-class voters. Now it is clear: Latinos are the most important swing voters of the 2020s.
Democrats have made gains with Latinos over the past two years, winning back trust with a crucial group of voters who helped fuel President Trump's return to the White House in 2024. Latino voters now favor Democrats over Republicans by 30 percentage points, according to the latest New York Times/Siena poll. The shift is a striking reversal after Mr. Trump made significant inroads with Latinos, creating the foundation of a multiracial coalition that many believed could signal a long-term political realignment.
But that swing now appears limited and potentially fleeting. While Democrats have not yet reached the level of support among Hispanic voters they had a decade ago, they have made important gains that could help them win control of Congress. Hispanic voters make up at least 20 percent of registered voters in nearly two dozen highly competitive House races in Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Pennsylvania and Texas, as well as other states. Latino voters could also prove decisive in several Senate races, including in Texas, where Republicans made historic gains in the past two elections.
In Iowa and Kansas, traditionally Republican states where Democrats now see a chance to flip Senate seats, Hispanic voters could also play a critical role. The poll interviewed 3,494 voters from Oct. 12 to 19, 2026, by telephone using live interviewers, with nearly 99 percent of respondents contacted on their cellphones. Results were weighted to better reflect the full voting population, including groups such as people without a college degree. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 1.9 percentage points among the likely electorate and registered voters.
Source: New York Times Top Stories · Summarized by HeadlinesBriefing