President Trump's Shield of the Americas Summit revealed limits of his regional strategy. While leaders like Argentina's Milei and El Salvador's Bukele attended, Brazil, Mexico and Colombia—representing over half the region's GDP—were conspicuously absent. Trump's approach relies on economic coercion and threats rather than positive incentives.

China has established deep economic roots in Latin America, providing $120 billion in loans since 2005. Trade between the regions skyrocketed to $518.47 billion in 2024 from just $12 billion in 2000. Chinese companies have built ports, power plants and infrastructure projects Western lenders avoided, creating commercial dependence that transcends political alliances.

Latin American leaders practice strategic hedging, performing public rituals of alignment with Washington while quietly expanding ties with Beijing. Brazil's Bolsonaro exemplified this pattern, maintaining Trump-friendly positions while deepening trade with China. Even under pressure, nations prioritize economic pragmatism over geopolitical demands.

The U.S. remains Latin America's largest trading partner but cannot lead through threats alone. Washington must expand positive connections rather than treating the region as a security theater. For Latin American governments, maintaining diplomatic flexibility and avoiding rigid alliances provides essential insurance against global volatility.