A New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena University poll shows Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) holding a 16‑point lead over Republican Stacy Garrity, the state treasurer, in Pennsylvania’s gubernatorial contest. Shapiro’s 60% approval rating and pragmatic focus on local issues, including a recent executive order imposing strict guardrails on AI data‑center development, drive his advantage.

He also wins 11% of Trump’s 2024 supporters and leads among nearly every demographic, especially voters under 30. Garrity, a former Army Reserve officer, remains less known, with under 40% of voters having an opinion on her. Economic concerns dominate the race, with Shapiro leading by 15‑16 points on handling the economy and cost of living.

While half of voters view the Democratic Party as too far left, only 29% say the same of Shapiro. The poll also highlights Shapiro’s national profile, his vetting as a potential running mate for Kamala Harris, and his prospects for a 2028 presidential bid.