Facing a fresh economic assault from the United States, Iran’s leaders are gambling that they can weather the coming storm and make the cost of their suffering felt in an oil-rich region critical to the global economy. As Iran’s economic crisis deepensuring economic crisis deepens, experts warn Iranian leaders may feel they have little to lose by responding with military escalation. Sina Toossi, an Iran expert at the Center for International Policy, cautioned that economic pressure could become another mechanism for escalation.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced new U.S. measures to disrupt Iran’s economy, though details were sparse. Iranian officials labeled the campaign the next phase of a war since February’s U.S.-Israeli strikes, calling economic warfare the “main battlefield.” Economy Minister Ali Madanizadeh warned Iran would push back using its own tools, while security chief Mohsen Rezaei vowed no oil would leave the region if Gulf neighbors joined U.S. efforts. The rial has depreciated 41 percent since December, fueling inflation, unemployment, and protests met with deadly crackdowns.

Despite hardship, Iranian officials express confidence, citing a two-year sanctions plan and past resilience to U.S. pressure.