European leaders are scrambling to prevent a new refugee crisis as the Iran war escalates, fearing a repeat of the 2015 surge that fueled the far-right's rise. The European Union and Turkey, the key transit route, are holding urgent talks. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan assured EU Migration Commissioner Magnus Brunner that Turkey is hardening its border and prepared to block refugees, though concrete plans remain nascent. Up to 90,000 refugees could be housed in Turkish camps if needed. Anxiety stems from the Syria precedent: it took four years for Syrian refugees to flood Europe. Alternative for Germany (AfD) polls neck-and-neck with Chancellor Merz, highlighting the political stakes.

Von der Leyen warned of 'internal displacement' in Iran and Lebanon, urging all migration tools be deployed. Two-point-three million Syrian refugees remain in Turkey, a sensitive political issue.