Graduates this spring face a bleak backdrop. Inflation spikes and hiring freezes leave many questioning the promise of a degree. Only 43 percent of young Americans rate their job outlook positively, a tumble from 75 percent a year earlier. The mood, amplified by wars, tariffs and AI anxiety, fuels a growing sense of defeat. Many are forced to take service jobs while they search.

Employers now treat recent grads like risky bets. Harvard economist David Deming warns that companies hesitate to invest in talent amid uncertain trade deals, volatile energy costs and the unknown impact of artificial intelligence. A third of this year’s commencement speakers invoked “resilience,” a stark shift from 2018 when such language was rare. Hiring algorithms now filter applications before a human ever sees a resume.

Yet the data shows a counterweight. Real wages for younger workers have risen 13 percent since 2014, and the average net worth $118,000 at age 30 for Millennials and Gen Z dwarfs the inflation‑adjusted $53,000 held by Gen X peers. Economists stress that college graduates still out‑earn non‑degree holders, providing a measurable, if modest, financial edge. This earnings premium helps offset student‑loan burdens and supports wealth building.