A new study from the National Bureau of Economic Research upends the Trump administration's claim that mass deportations create jobs for Americans. Comparing communities with deportation surges from January 2025 to October 2025 against those without, researchers found the opposite: wages stayed flat while both immigrant and American-born workers lost jobs.

Construction took the hardest hit, with American-born workers without college degrees losing 3 percent of their employment, compared to 7.5 percent for undocumented workers. For every deportation arrest, six American-born workers lost a job. Overall, affected industries saw a 5 percent drop in male undocumented worker employment and a 1.3 percent drop for male American-born workers without degrees.

Study co-author Chloe East said construction companies simply reduced production rather than raise wages. Residential construction jobs fell 1.5 percent year-over-year in April 2026, while housing permits dropped 7.4 percent. Contractors report delays and higher costs — a South Florida general contractor expects to raise client prices 15 percent, and Anirban Basu at Associated Builders and Contractors warns fewer projects remain financially viable.