Inside the Trump administration, officials are expressing fears that Iran is in the "advanced stages" of planning attacks against U.S. officials. Across the globe, the Iranians appear convinced that Israel and the United States are preparing their third major attack in 16 months, a final push to force Iran to surrender to U.S. demands. The conflict in the Middle East has entered a new phase in which a mix of factors, from the political calendars in the United States and Israel to the potential for all sides to seek pretexts for action, is creating heightened tension and risk.
Several diplomats and outside experts noted that this is how countries can escalate into full-scale war. If U.S. intelligence disclosed this week is right that Iran has credible plans to attack Americans at home and abroad, one senior European official said, one gunshot aimed at a U.S. official could touch off a conflagration. A stray explosion near a bunker sheltering Iranian leaders could do the same. Those leaders already survived a decapitation strike that killed their predecessors in the opening hours of the war on Feb. 28.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Trump face critical elections that could dramatically affect the balance of power in their countries. Even if Mr. Netanyahu is defeated on Tuesday, he could decide to launch one last strike that he may believe his successor would hesitate to execute. Mr. Trump, who knows how unpopular the war is even among his strongest supporters, may want to show that his authority as commander in chief is undiminished.
History offers warnings. Partial or faulty intelligence, or a failure to understand an adversary's true motives, has carried deadly consequences in moments such as the Cuban Missile Crisis and the decision to invade Iraq. U.S. officials are focused on recent intelligence suggesting Iran may seek to kill U.S. ambassadors in the Middle East and American officials on U.S. soil, a longtime ambition of Iran's elite Unit 840. Yet Iran's desires often outstrip its capabilities, and it has at times hired hapless hit men who were arrested before they could do harm.
Source: New York Times Top Stories · Summarized by HeadlinesBriefing