Twenty five years ago, Osama bin Laden led the planning of Al Qaeda’s attacks on Sept. 11, 2001, from a Taliban stronghold in Afghanistan, where he lived as their guest. Now, the Taliban rule over Afghanistan once again, trying to present a more modern face to the world. But despite the veneer, the Taliban have not changed their ideology, and armed groups, including dozens of Qaeda members, remain in Afghanistan.

Many of the conditions that made the Sept. 11 attacks possible remain. The Taliban outlasted the American war to oust them and are now ruling over 45 million Afghans. They use the latest i Phones to contact European and American diplomats.

They travel to the Persian Gulf and Turkey, and promote trade with Uzbekistan and India. Their fighters now patrol Afghanistan’s cities, some using abandoned U.S. military gear. But the United States, the European Union and most other governments are not ready to trust them.

That is the Taliban’s message: Calm, not chaos, permeates Afghanistan. But that is only one part of the story. Extremist armed groups still have a home in Afghanistan, according to the United States, China, Russia and the United Nations.

The militant threat in Afghanistan is much less significant and visible than in the years leading up to 9/11, experts and security officials say, when up to 30,000 militants and fighters were in the country. Still, United Nations experts estimate that 15,000 to 20,000 militants are scattered among about 20 groups in Afghanistan. Russia says they could number up to 23,000.

Al Qaeda has only a few dozen members, according to estimates from the United Nations and security experts, but some of them live freely in Kabul. The Afghan authorities have issued national identity cards to the leadership of Al Qaeda’s South Asian branch, according to the United Nations’ group of experts monitoring terrorist networks. Thousands of Islamic State militants also roam the rugged borderlands between Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Most numerous are the thousands of militants from Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, known as the Pakistani Taliban, or T. T. P., who navigate the porous border to stage attacks on Pakistani security forces.

Security experts and officials attribute a sharp increase in attacks on Pakistan to the permissive environment provided by the Afghan Taliban since 2021. Though in far lower numbers than in the 1990s, foreign fighters have also recently traveled to Afghanistan from Syria and Somalia. The Taliban in Afghanistan deny backing the Pakistani Taliban but privately say that they could not rein in the group even if they wanted to.

Pakistan has been a close ally of the United States under President Trump, and the United States has accused the Taliban of breaking their counterterrorism promises. Even China, long a staunch supporter of pragmatic engagement with the Taliban, has urged the group to “resolutely eliminate all terrorist forces.” The European Union wants it “to do more to convince the world that Afghanistan is not a potential threat.