The Persian Gulf conflict has already inflicted substantial damage on global markets, with the S&P 500 dropping 7.3% in the first quarter and energy prices soaring. President Trump's unpredictable statements about the war's timeline continue creating market volatility, despite his latest assertion that Iran will be brought "back to the Stone Ages" within weeks.

Economic impact varies dramatically by region, with the United States buffered by its net energy exporter status. Countries across Asia and Europe face acute shortages, with US gas prices crossing the $4 per gallon threshold. The Federal Reserve maintains a cautious stance on interest rates, awaiting clearer signals on inflationary effects.

Under the most optimistic scenario from Capital Economics, there remains a two-thirds probability of swift conflict resolution and restored oil flows. Even so, the IMF warns that all paths lead to higher prices and slower growth. Exxon Mobil and Lockheed Martin are rare winners, up 40% and 25% respectively, while cash remains the safest haven during this period of uncertainty.