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US gasoline demand reshaped by post‑war driving cuts

New York Times Business •
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After the Iran war drove global oil prices skyward, U.S. motorists cut back mileage and shifted toward fuel‑efficient vehicles. The abrupt price spike forced daily commuters to reconsider trips, while car buyers rushed to models that promised lower gasoline consumption. Those adjustments, rooted in immediate cost pressure, now appear to be reshaping long‑term demand patterns. The trend mirrors earlier post‑crisis shifts in other economies.

Industry analysts note that reduced driving and higher‑efficiency fleets could depress gasoline sales for years, eroding revenue streams for refiners and retailers. With fewer gallons sold per driver, profit margins may tighten even if wholesale prices rebound. The shift also pressures automakers to accelerate electrification and hybrid offerings to meet a market that no longer prioritizes volume. Dealers see slower turnover as owners delay purchases.

For investors, the emerging consumption pattern signals a need to reassess exposure to traditional fuel‑related assets. Companies that depend on high turnover, such as major oil majors and gasoline‑station chains, may see earnings compression, while firms positioned in fuel‑efficiency technology could capture upside. The data suggest that U.S. gasoline demand may never return to pre‑war levels.