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Trump Iran War Market Impact

New York Times Business •
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President Trump again demonstrated his fixation on financial markets when he suggested the Iran conflict was "very complete, pretty much." This 65 percent surge in oil prices to nearly $120 per barrel had rattled investors, prompting Trump to signal military operations were nearly complete. The S&P 500 jumped 0.8 percent, its best single-day performance in over a month, before Trump later backtracked, saying strikes could continue.

Trump's market-oriented approach contrasts sharply with the economic concerns of most Americans. While stocks briefly rallied on his dovish comments, most households struggle with higher prices from tariffs and oil increases. The disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street remains pronounced, as the "stock market is not the economy" maxim that was popular from 2023 to 2025 now gives way to shared pessimism.

The administration has attempted an "affordability pivot" with proposals like imposing lower credit card rates and banning corporate home purchases, but these measures have gained little traction in Congress. Federal Reserve officials face pressure to cut rates, but persistent inflationary pressures from tariffs restrict their options, keeping mortgage, bank and auto loan rates elevated for consumers.