International Monetary Fund managing director Kristalina Georgieva told a gathering ahead of the spring meetings that the Iran conflict will dent global growth. Damage to energy infrastructure and supply‑chain snarls have already pushed oil above $100 a barrel, sending U.S. gasoline past $4 per gallon. The IMF expects a slower‑than‑forecast expansion this year.

Georgieva referenced the fund’s October outlook, which had projected global growth at 3.1% for 2026, down from 3.2% in 2025. She warned that even a durable cease‑fire will not restore the pre‑war baseline, as higher input prices feed broader consumer inflation. Central banks may feel compelled to tighten policy if inflation expectations unanchor.

Federal Reserve minutes showed policymakers monitoring the war’s price impact while keeping rates steady, reflecting the tightrope between curbing inflation and preserving growth. Georgieva urged restraint, cautioning that premature tightening could choke the fragile recovery. The IMF will release scenario‑based forecasts next Tuesday, offering investors a clearer view of the conflict’s economic fallout.