Stephen Paduano, Martin Kessler and Jules Devie observed that the Paris Club’s annual gathering in the French capital offered little new deal flow. Since Argentina’s 1956 restructuring, the Club has coordinated sovereign debt relief, but no restructuring has been launched since Ghana’s 2022 agreement, which closed in 2024. Eight low‑income states face insolvency risk and twenty face liquidity stress, yet none have sought the Club’s process.

Frontier debt markets have softened, letting distressed issuers refinance rather than restructure. Yields on Eurobonds rose with risk‑free rates, while spreads tightened to 330 basis points, near historic lows. About $180bn of sovereign debt matures in 2026, creating rollover pressure. Bolivia, despite political turmoil, sold a $1bn five‑year bond at 9.75% and avoided a Paris Club filing, illustrating market willingness to fund risky borrowers.

Yet a revived ‘bond bogeyman’ discourages many governments from negotiating with creditors. Senegal’s refusal to restructure, financed through €1bn of total‑return swaps, has pushed public spending onto citizens while keeping debt service current. Ethiopia’s recent tussle—bondholders sued after official creditors rejected a shallow deal—shows that holdout fears can stall relief. Consequently, most poor nations are unlikely to enter formal restructurings soon.