Despite a turbulent first half marked by geopolitical drama from Trump's various international maneuvers, US equities have delivered roughly 8 per cent gains year-to-date. MSCI USA constituents now carry $3tn in expected earnings for the next year, up from just over $2.5tn at the start of 2026, showing analysts have significantly raised forecasts.

Energy companies led the earnings upgrades, with expected earnings climbing from $103bn to over $150bn as oil prices surged before retreating. Yet the sector's expected earnings haven't fully followed crude's decline, keeping valuations elevated. Exxon Mobil and Chevron together account for more than half of this energy uplift, though their impact pales compared to large-cap tech upgrades.

Technology remains the largest earnings contributor at about $1tn, with Micron surprisingly providing greater lift to expectations than Nvidia. The real story lies in concentration: just 10 companies generate roughly two-thirds of the entire boost in index-level earnings expectations. However, these same stocks have performed variably for investors.

Micron has nearly tripled in value, while the other nine companies have collectively fallen about 2 per cent. This disconnect between rising earnings expectations and mixed stock performance highlights a fundamental mismatch in today's market narrative. When the companies driving earnings growth aren't the ones rallying, the sustainability of equity valuations becomes questionable.