Opec+ has agreed to increase oil production targets for the fourth straight month, adding 188,000 barrels daily in July despite ongoing shipping constraints in the Strait of Hormuz. The group, which produced 52 million barrels daily in April, has been steadily rolling back production cuts implemented more than three years ago since the US-Israeli conflict with Iran began in late February.

Shipping restrictions through the critical Strait of Hormuz severely limit the impact of Opec+'s decision on global markets. Iran restricted the waterway following attacks by the US and Israel on February 28, slowing tanker traffic to a trickle. Analysts note the market lacks "physical barrels that can actually move," making this increase more of a policy signal than a real supply boost.

The constraints extend beyond shipping issues. Only Saudi Arabia possesses spare production capacity to deploy, while Russia produces well below its target. This exposes a growing gap between Opec+ paper capacity and real deliverable supply, complicating the group's ability to influence global oil markets effectively.