A viral Iranian propaganda video this week revealed Tehran's strategy in its oil market battle with the US: block the Strait of Hormuz and watch prices soar. The Lego-style animation showed armed speedboats closing shipping lanes, financiers weeping as oil prices surged, and Arabs despairing as crude sales collapsed. The real-life blockade has trapped roughly 300mn barrels of oil and gas in the region.

Iran's de facto closure of the strait through which one-fifth of global oil flows has become its most potent weapon. At its narrowest point, the waterway is less than 21 nautical miles wide, putting tankers perilously close to Iranian drones and missiles. Tehran now controls the Gulf oil market, forcing neighbors like Iraq to almost entirely stop production. Prices hit a four-year high of $120 a barrel, prompting Donald Trump to declare US efforts "very complete."

With Ayatollah Khamenei announcing indefinite closure of the strait, Iran has wrongfooted oil traders who assumed US military might would keep the waterway open. The White House, which initially took a triumphalist approach after wiping out Iran's top leadership, underwent a rapid mood shift as prices soared. Energy Secretary Chris Wright's inaccurate social media post claiming a naval escort succeeded briefly crashed prices before rebounding. Former US energy officials say the only way to bring down prices is to replace the 10mn barrels per day lost from the market.