40 per cent of Deutsche Bank's survey respondents believe oil won't normalize until at least Q3 2024. Markets are pricing in a potential end to the Iran conflict, though infrastructure damage complicates immediate relief. This shift could trigger oil price declines and lower bond yields, though gains may be uneven.

US markets, less exposed to energy shocks, could outperform Europe, where equities have lagged. The US Federal Reserve's upcoming leadership change under Kevin Warsh may further dampen the dollar, as the central bank is unlikely to hike rates aggressively. Expect a backlog of corporate bond and stock market deals to emerge once stability returns, mirroring typical January or September surges.