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Indonesia Central Bank Surprises Markets With Off-Cycle Rate Hike to Stem Rupiah Crisis

Financial Times Markets •
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Bank Indonesia stunned markets on Tuesday by raising its benchmark interest rate 0.25 percentage points to 5.50% at an unscheduled meeting, targeting a currency in freefall. The rupiah had just touched a record low of Rp18,188 against the dollar, extending losses to roughly 9% for the year as investors fled Indonesian assets.

Foreign investors have been dumping Indonesian securities amid mounting concerns over corporate governance standards and President Prabowo Subianto's expansive fiscal spending plans. Growth prospects for Southeast Asia's largest economy have also dimmed, creating a perfect storm that's battered the rupiah and fueled capital outflows.

The central bank's aggressive response follows another rate increase just three weeks ago, marking its first hikes in two years. Officials said higher yields should attract foreign capital and stabilize the exchange rate, though the off-cycle timing suggests panic rather than careful planning.

The rupiah rebounded 0.9% to Rp18,030.5 immediately after the announcement, but investors will likely demand more convincing action before returning to Indonesian markets in force. The central bank faces a delicate balancing act between defending its currency and avoiding deeper economic pain.

Bank Indonesia appears willing to sacrifice growth for stability, but whether this approach restores confidence before further damage occurs remains uncertain.