The author's default position is that prediction markets are bad, citing dystopian examples like tampered weather equipment in Paris to win bets. However, two benefits emerge. First, they bolster the case for rigorous rules: a dispute over whether the US invaded Venezuela highlighted the value of ISDA's painstaking financial definitions that prevent such chaos in real markets.

Second, platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket offer surprisingly accurate signals on events such as the next UK chancellor or Bank of England moves. Tradeweb's partnership with Kalshi aims to bring these "jungle drums" to institutional traders via an event-contract portal.

A concrete example: in early March, UK and European short-term debt crashed when the Iran war started, as hedge funds' crowded rate-cut bets unwound violently, distorting market signals. Prediction markets, less prone to such positioning squeezes, can sometimes price risk more cleanly. While insider-betting risks remain, the author is less inclined to dismiss them.