President Donald Trump declared on Sunday that the United States and Iran had reached a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran must clear mines and waive tolls while Washington lifts its naval blockade. Even if the agreement holds, roughly 500 merchant ships remain stranded after three months of fighting, meaning any resumption of traffic will be gradual, and could delay the rebound of crude shipments. The waterway normally channels about one‑fifth of global oil trade, so delays could pressure prices.

Industry groups estimate that before the February 28 conflict, 130 ships crossed daily; today traffic has collapsed to a trickle. The International Chamber of Shipping and BIMCO warn that uncoordinated transits could create congestion and erratic manoeuvring, urging a coordinated schedule. European navies are positioning assets in the Mediterranean to assist with mine clearance, but limited military oversight is expected.

Analysts remain skeptical about a swift recovery. EOS Risk Group’s Martin Kelly called the deal “pessimistic” given recent tit‑for‑tat attacks, while RBC’s Helima Croft likened the situation to the Red Sea, where traffic sits 56% below pre‑conflict levels. Energy analyst Saul Kavonic warned that oil markets will stay tight through 2027 as logistics untangle, underscoring that a full flow restoration will take weeks.