Wall Street's focus has shifted from inflation to growth concerns as geopolitical tensions and energy prices weigh on the outlook. The 10-year Treasury rallied sharply yesterday, sending yields down as investors turn their attention to potential risks to global growth. This marks a notable change from recent weeks when inflation fears dominated market sentiment.

Strategists like Don Rissmiller of Strategas argue this shift invites a simple trade: buy duration. In a lower-growth world, inflation poses less of a long-term risk and sovereign bonds become more appealing. The US economy was growing above trend before the Iran war, but cracks were already visible in consumer credit quality and job market stagnation.

Bond managers like Brij Khurana at Wellington and James Athey at Marlborough see room for the long end of the rate curve to fall, making longer-term bonds an interesting value proposition relative to stocks. However, not everyone agrees - Greg Peters of PGIM remains unenthusiastic about duration. Key data to watch includes spending data from banks and card networks, plus initial jobless claims, which could signal if the job market shifts from stagnation to contraction.