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Gold's Price Surge Defies Fundamental Valuations

Financial Times Markets •
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Gold prices have soared to 30% above levels implied by historical valuation models, reaching a 200-year high in real terms. Analysts struggle to identify market forces capable of reversing this trajectory, with no clear economic catalyst explaining the disconnect between price and traditional metrics like inflation or interest rates.

The rally has intensified investor speculation, particularly among institutional investors seeking safe-haven assets amid geopolitical tensions and central bank policy uncertainty. Gold ETFs have seen record inflows, while physical gold demand from central banks and retail investors alike has surged, further complicating market liquidity dynamics.

Regulatory concerns loom as policymakers debate whether the commodity’s unchecked ascent poses systemic risks to financial stability. Critics argue the price surge could trigger a speculative bubble, while proponents view it as a reflection of long-term structural shifts in portfolio diversification strategies.

What’s next? The market’s inability to self-correct raises questions about investor sentiment overriding fundamental analysis. Key resistance levels at $2,300 per ounce remain a psychological hurdle, but without a definitive catalyst to reverse momentum, prices may continue their unpredictable climb.