A semiconductor rout that started in Asia spread to the US and Europe. Korea's Kospi fell more than 10 per cent. SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, which make up more than half of that index, closed down 13 and 14 per cent respectively. Sandisk led the Philadelphia Semiconductor index fall, dropping 14 per cent. Catalysts included China manufacturing high-quality chipmaking machines and the CXMT IPO.

AI chief executives once bragged their technology would eliminate millions of jobs. Yet the chief economist at one AI lab wrote: "AI has caused no material increase in the unemployment rate to date." A new note by former Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner Erika Mc Entarfer and Stanford colleagues finds employment trends in high-AI-exposure occupations like software developers and customer service agents are "fairly stable." Online job postings for software developers have grown faster than other occupations. However, employment of 22- to 25-year-olds in software development and customer service has fallen relative to older cohorts since ChatGPT's November 2022 launch.

Productivity gains from experiments haven't broadened, and adoption remains low — about 20 per cent of companies use AI per the US Census Bureau, with most still in the "piloting phase" per McKinsey. Slower adoption gives policymakers more time.

On oil: after the US-Iran MOU collapsed, crude jumped above $100 before settling near $87. Hunter Kornfeind at Rapidan Energy expects slower oil flow recovery and a permanently changed Strait of Hormuz. Crack spreads hit levels last seen in the early Ukraine war. Markets await Fed chair Kevin Warsh on energy prices.