The global energy crisis triggered by the Middle East conflict has entered a new phase due to a shortage of tankers moving crude worldwide, according to Vitol chief executive Russell Hardy. While more oil flows from the Gulf, buyers struggle to secure vessels, creating a fresh bottleneck. Hardy told the Energy Intelligence Forum in London that chartering prices have become "pretty parabolic," with refineries now suffering from the strain.
He estimated roughly 12 million barrels of crude and 2 million barrels of refined fuels exit the Gulf daily after the US Navy cleared routes through the Strait of Hormuz. Maintaining this flow is critical to preventing a new oil price surge, as seven-month conflicts have depleted western stockpiles. Without it, Hardy warned of a "$200-a-barrel scenario." The system relies on tankers shuttling through the Strait of Hormuz, past Iranian attacks, before transferring cargo to ships in the Gulf of Oman.
This method is "very inefficient," with ships tied up for days or weeks, reducing available tanker pools and sending freight rates soaring. Traders and refiners struggle to calculate delivered costs. Refiners unable to charter ships are competing for easier-to-deliver supplies, with North Sea oil selling for $145 a barrel.
European refiners face negative margins, while US margins remain above $70. Hardy says Middle East exports to Asia are an important lifeline for winter fuel supply.
Source: Financial Times Companies · Summarized by HeadlinesBriefing