A new IPPR report reveals nuanced public sentiment toward UK net zero policies, challenging assumptions that climate support has collapsed. While Tory voters under Kemi Badenoch’s leadership show a notable decline in backing, with the party’s net position dropping compared to previous eras, Labour and Reform UK supporters maintain polarized views. The data highlights a 18% gap between Tory MPs’ perception of public support and reality, suggesting political leaders may be misjudging voter priorities. Scotland stands out with 31% anti-sentiment toward net zero, potentially linked to North Sea energy interests, contrasting with mid-20s UK-wide levels.

The findings complicate narratives about rising energy bills driving climate skepticism. Only 4% of Labour-to-Reform voters cite net zero as a key issue, indicating broader economic concerns dominate public discourse. Despite this, majorities still favor renewables over fossil fuels, and climate remains a secondary factor in energy cost blame. The report underscores a fragmented political landscape, where traditional cross-party consensus on environmental issues has eroded since Boris Johnson’s tenure.

Climate salience has waned in political campaigns, even amid extreme weather events. Politicians’ visible advocacy, like wading through flooded streets, fails to resonate with shifting voter priorities. This disconnect raises questions about messaging strategies ahead of local elections, particularly in Scotland where independence debates may further influence energy policy discussions. The IPPR warns that partisan polarization risks undermining long-term climate goals.

UK net zero support remains high overall but faces growing ideological divides. The 18% underestimation by Tory MPs highlights a critical misalignment between political strategy and public opinion. As Scotland energy debate intensifies, the Reform UK influence on Labour’s climate stance warrants close monitoring. These trends signal a pivotal moment for environmental policy in the UK’s fragmented political ecosystem.