Admiral and Aviva, the UK’s largest insurers, assert that autonomous vehicles will only capture 4% of the market by 2035, preserving demand for traditional policies. Milena Mondini de Focatiis stated the FTSE 100 group expects the sector to grow for “two decades,” while Amanda Blanc of Aviva anticipates widespread adoption by 2040. Analysts note this slower uptake could insulate retail insurers from immediate disruption.

Jefferies analysts highlight that Admiral’s forecast is “lower than assumed,” suggesting insurers may avoid drastic declines. Citi’s James Shuck warns that self-driving cars might shift retail insurance business to wholesale models, though UK insurers remain confident. Lemonade’s 2025 discount for autonomous vehicles triggered a motor insurer sell-off, but shares have largely rebounded, reflecting stabilized expectations.

Aviva’s Blanc argues even fully autonomous cars will require hybrid insurance models, as drivers may retain control in complex scenarios. This hybridity ensures traditional coverage remains relevant. Meanwhile, ChatGPT’s rise threatens price comparison platforms like Moneysupermarket, which saw a 10% share drop after Mony Group’s stock fell. Insurers stress chatbots may disrupt niche markets but lack the scale to replace price aggregators in the UK.

Motor insurance profits rose 10% last year for both firms, aligning with forecasts. UK premiums, which dipped post-pandemic, are rising again due to parts replacement costs. The sector’s resilience underscores a transitional period where autonomous vehicles coexist with human-driven cars, delaying market contraction. Insurance analysts now focus on regulatory shifts and hybrid risk models to assess long-term viability.