British chocoholics and red meat lovers have borne the brunt of rising food prices in the UK, as poor cocoa harvests and shrinking cattle herds push up the cost of some of the country's favourite foods. A shopping basket with less chocolate and meat and more fruit, vegetables and fish would have experienced 40 percent less inflation in 2025 compared with the standard British basket, the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit said on Thursday. Researchers from the think-tank calculated average annual inflation of 2.7 percent for a basket aligned more closely with government guidelines on diet, compared with 4.5 percent for the standard basket.
Food and non-alcoholic drink prices rose by 1.3 percent in the 12 months to September, unchanged from August, according to official inflation data published on Wednesday. On a monthly basis, food and non-alcoholic drink prices fell by 0.2 percent. Chris Jaccarini, senior economist at ECIU, said the findings suggested that "eating a balanced diet, including less meat and chocolate, could offer some protection from climate-driven food inflation, but it's not a silver bullet".
Poor weather and disease in Ghana and Ivory Coast have disrupted cocoa production, squeezing supplies to chocolate makers worldwide. Industry dependence on beans from the two countries in west Africa has intensified the impact. Chocolate was the biggest contributor to the difference, with British prices rising at an average annual rate of 12.5 percent over 2024 and 2025, according to ECIU.
Over the same two years beef and lamb inflation averaged about 10 percent, while Britain's beef-breeding herd shrank by 4.1 percent in the year to June 2025, extending several years of contraction. But the foods driving up bills change as harvests recover or fresh shortages emerge. Olive oil registered sharp price rises after drought and heatwaves hit output in Spain, the world's biggest producer, in 2022 and 2023.
But global olive oil production rebounded by an estimated 38 percent in the 2024-25 season, according to the International Olive Council. By December last year, producer prices in Spain's Jaén region were 11 percent lower than a year earlier. ECIU reweighted the same ONS price series towards the NHS Eatwell Guide.
Falling prices for frozen and preserved fish helped restrain inflation, while greater spending shares for fruit, vegetables and cereals partly offset the benefits. But David Barmes, senior policy fellow at the Centre for Economic Transition Expertise at the London School of Economics, said shoppers should not assume the advantage would persist. "I don't think it shows that . . . systematically we will always see a healthier diet protecting against food inflation," he said. The balance is already shifting.
Fish prices rose 8.3 percent in the year to September 2026, while chocolate and beef prices fell 0.7 percent over the same period, the latest ONS figures show. Frozen seafood, meanwhile, was 10 percent more expensive. Liliana Danila, chief economist at the Food and Drink Federation, a trade body, said manufacturers were trying to keep prices as low as possible for consumers, but that energy, raw material and ingredient prices were all building pressure. "Government should be doing what it can now to take the heat out of any later inflationary period," she said. "With the Budget fast approaching, they should prioritise extending targeted energy relief to the food and drink sector.".
Source: Financial Times Companies · Summarized by HeadlinesBriefing