SoftBank is testing its self-imposed borrowing limit as it commits an additional $30bn to OpenAI, a move that risks unsettling investors already wary of its growing exposure to artificial intelligence. The Japanese group aims to keep its loan-to-value ratio below 25% but now accepts it could exceed this threshold temporarily. CFO Yoshimitsu Goto stated, 'I don’t deny the possibility in the future that we may go temporarily beyond 25 per cent.' This marks one of the clearest signs SoftBank is pushing financial guardrails to back OpenAI, despite mounting investor unease over costs, competition, and uncertain returns. The loan-to-value ratio has already risen from 16.5% to 20.6% in the quarter to December. Shares have fallen over 45% since last October as investors grow cautious about AI exposure, particularly with OpenAI facing intensifying competition from Google and Anthropic.

S&P revised its outlook on SoftBank to negative, citing the OpenAI investment. While SoftBank is confident it can manage leverage back below 25% through asset sales and financing, some investors see the LTV ratio as a Rorschach test for the company's future. The $500bn Stargate data centre project has been scaled back, and SoftBank faces challenges raising funds amid geopolitical tremors and market skepticism after selling its Nvidia stake.

The group's ¥30tn net asset value provides balance sheet ammunition, but the reliance on an OpenAI IPO to reduce leverage adds complexity. Banks have provided $40bn in bridge loans for the OpenAI investments, showing continued confidence, but the broader market uncertainty persists.