Russia could control over a third of global mined uranium supply by 2040, threatening Western energy security as nuclear demand surges, according to the Centre for Strategic Advantage (CSA). Currently, Russian-controlled mines account for nearly a quarter of global production capacity, largely through state-owned Rosatom's subsidiary Uranium One, which operates in Kazakhstan and is expanding into Tanzania and Namibia. Moscow also signed a uranium cooperation agreement with Niger after French group Orano was expelled.

A supply deficit looms due to years of underinvestment following the Fukushima disaster. Analysts like Alex Bedwany at Stifel warn the sector will need new supply by the mid-2030s. Projects in Canada, such as Nex Gen Energy's Saskatchewan development and Cameco's McArthur River expansion, face significant development risks and long timelines.

Sarah Forman of Urenco stresses the need for government signals supporting long-term nuclear energy to unlock capital. While Western nations have sanctioned Russian entities and pledged to counter its nuclear supply chain dominance since the 2022 Ukraine invasion, Russia remains a major enriched uranium supplier to Europe.