Russia’s finance minister Anton Siluanov warned Wednesday that the United Arab Emirates’ abrupt departure from Opec could pull oil prices lower once the Middle‑East conflict eases. He argued that without the cartel’s output limits the UAE would likely produce oil freely, a scenario that could spark a price war among Gulf exporters. Moscow says it will stay in the broader Opec+ alliance.

Analysts fear the exit of Opec’s third‑largest producer will erode the group’s ability to balance supply. HSBC senior analyst Kim Fustier estimates Abu Dhabi National Oil Company could lift output to over 4.5 million barrels a day once Strait of Hormuz traffic normalises, up from a 3.4 million‑b/d quota set for May 2026. Higher UAE shipments would pressure Saudi price management and tempt other members to drift from agreed cuts.

Siluanov said Russia must keep a three‑year budget buffer because lower prices would force oil firms to reshuffle globally. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov reiterated Moscow’s commitment to Opec+, hoping the UAE’s move does not unravel the coalition; Kazakhstan also ruled out leaving. With Opec‑plus now covering roughly 36 % of world output, any supply shock could reshape market dynamics quickly.